Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 92824.354433 97875.904335 102922.804113 108339.964362 113986.440597 119694.930339 125898.797469
2025-06-08 83748.428441 91432.017366 99320.942529 108015.522378 117318.358429 126962.807688 137706.433889
2025-06-15 78578.620451 88166.688525 98223.249223 109535.765609 121884.295138 134932.195796 149738.836061
2025-06-22 74195.545811 85192.777159 96935.876227 110372.342567 125283.577585 141286.662173 159722.072062
2025-06-29 70158.036439 82221.812269 95309.101195 110508.556857 127620.288975 146233.697598 167954.740862
2025-07-06 66667.928287 79595.906774 93822.678259 110568.321337 129663.972183 150684.726912 175495.916646
2025-07-13 64747.464370 78591.590264 94021.044268 112398.144578 133591.103014 157164.678969 185265.337261
2025-07-20 62901.435811 77540.746284 94050.599604 113931.173063 137097.035675 163112.598871 194405.669312
2025-07-27 60881.170707 76168.173350 93603.991096 114818.942634 139782.923850 168070.714003 202385.881665
2025-08-03 58588.899286 74362.091915 92550.284860 114903.829000 141456.225507 171803.551383 208914.936583
2025-08-10 56652.217272 72892.238479 91813.606433 115289.091435 143421.335347 175833.446905 215768.271388
2025-08-17 54703.546674 71325.216849 90886.617338 115378.656944 144979.154896 179346.071756 221993.621617
2025-08-24 53447.206098 70580.043273 90937.626073 116649.134110 147974.659720 184609.731273 230379.744171
2025-08-31 51473.077112 68877.477675 89764.455630 116382.176049 149081.071565 187607.849216 236073.725612
2025-09-07 50574.894672 68481.607709 90163.248405 118015.014318 152481.660304 193359.060598 245094.704385
2025-09-14 49377.266560 67658.334302 89990.894658 118907.823863 154954.065948 197983.892524 252770.573522
2025-09-21 47896.264775 66420.013193 89252.489787 119053.448858 156472.950945 201432.560354 259017.625225
2025-09-28 46460.217324 65190.627929 88481.059581 119117.147499 157858.313540 204699.174863 265039.437726
2025-10-05 45956.916670 65152.940050 89206.125687 121060.932956 161591.683825 210863.804795 274652.079232
2025-10-12 45344.240229 64945.509426 89693.704246 122689.136404 164925.922624 216547.077280 283702.231528
2025-10-19 44466.408259 64355.733291 89662.286092 123631.904958 167382.387193 221142.259798 291422.566435
2025-10-26 43268.007216 63300.326825 88992.786793 123722.046230 168732.241548 224345.498113 297412.456799
2025-11-02 42257.313858 62467.395564 88587.218238 124131.146618 170473.949863 228035.010506 304020.671045